Business Risk Scenario Models

In order to make the best decisions we can in high pressure, time constrained environments, we need data. Data models, like a Business Risk Scenario Model (BRSM), provide the information we need to make those informed and reasoned trade-offs between all the valid options we have.

A well-designed BRSM helps make those pragmatic risk based decisions in a timely, well governed, commercially realistic and traceable way.

A Business Risk Scenario Model is a clear one-page summary of:

• The key things we think could go wrong
• What we will measure to see if they are going wrong
• Our current assessment of how wrong they actually are
• Which things we care about most and are any of those worse than we can cope with
• What do we think we need to do about the things that are wrong

Video 1: Introducing BRSMs

In this video, we outline what a BRSM is, what it does and why it is useful for organisations.

Video 2: How to build a BRSM

In this video, we outline the process for building a BRSM and why it’s important to have some challenging conversations along the way.

Video 3: How to use the BRSM

In this video, we talk about using the model in practical terms, and how a business risk scenario model can drive and support action and decision making.

Benefits of a BRSM

A well designed and properly used BRSM delivers the following benefits:

• Consistent understanding of what is most important, and the data that supports this (and whether you have it or not)
• Allows the business to focus on what is most important and avoid biases towards data that may be less relevant or less reliable
• Clear setting of agreed tolerances – when the temperature is rising you have a clear signal that something must be done
• Drives action, not discussion – the purpose here is to understand what we need to change and when

How does the process work?

Business risk scenario modelling and analysis is not strategic planning – although it is often part of the process. It is not business continuity management – although it is often part of the process. It is a structured yet judgement-based process to get the best and brightest in your business aligned on a small number of potentially viable future realities to which you need to be able to respond.

In the current environment, the need to have a “business risk scenario” view of your key concerns and options is more important than ever.

The BRSM process looks like this:

How do BRSMs compare to traditional risk management tools?

For so many businesses today, the challenge is to garner meaningful insight from their risk information. They need confidence in the insights that come from that data to help them make better decisions.

Traditional risk tools are not fit-for-purpose when organisations have to make quick decisions on the best possible data available. Instead, without good business scenario models they rely more on individual judgement and first principles.

Of course, the best time to prepare for a challenge is before you are in the middle of it… but for many of us, we need to manage through situations in the best possible way – in a pragmatic, robust and action-oriented manner. We need something different, and fast.

How does a BRSM help organisations?

At Insync we have worked together over more than ten years, to help solve some of the most challenging risk problems, as well as embed senior risk oversight capability that measures the things that matter most.

By incorporating variations of the Business Risk Scenario Model (BRSM) our risk team have helped:

• Mining, manufacturing, banking, investment, construction, energy, consulting and member based organisations make better investment and business decisions
• Program leaders and Executive Steering Committees/Boards gain more confidence about the true state of medium and large projects that have complex or multi-faceted risks – which cannot be meaningfully considered or responded to outside a set of well designed and constructed business scenarios that support actionable insights as things evolve
• Highly regulated clients achieve meaningful balance between the competing demands of business objectives, regulatory compliance obligations, financial and operating risks, and business capability.